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test, based on .4 percent of the population being HIV-Positive.”Oh, God. This was a mistake. How do I get out of it now? “Dr. Tanner, maybe we should just focus on how they come up with the statement that the combined HIV tests will be 99% accurate.”
“Alright. Well, on pages 91 and 92,” and Tanner puts his glasses back on, “there is a complex mathematical formula they use to determine what’s called the Positive Predictive Value of four combined HIV tests.”
Campbell interrupts. “Four? I thought that only two Positive ELISAs and one Western Blot was required.”
“That’s true,” Tanner agrees, taking his glasses off again. “But all their calculations are based on three ELISAs and one Western Blot, so right there they’ve got a problem.”
“Can we overlook that problem as well?” and let’s get to the meat of the matter, please.
“Well, okay. But please understand that using four tests makes their math even more wrong.”
Campbell is getting impatient. “So what is wrong with their math?”
“First of all, it’s math. It’s all theoretical. It’s all on paper with no relevance to reality. You know that you can prove mathematically that two plus two is five, don’t you – on paper, anyway. But in reality, two plus two is four, and we all know that to be true.”
Campbell looks at the jury and nods his head. “I’m sure we’d all agree with that.”
“But the biggest problem with their math is that they use a wrong formula to determine